Introduction From the beginning of 2018, blockchain has become a hot topic by the east wind of the A-share market. However, in the face of the recent continuous drop of the concept shares, many followers who are ready to enter the blockchain tide are given a splash of cold water. Why is blockchain hot? Is it a new opportunity or a new bubble? What do the insiders think?
is narrated by Chen Caigen, a well-known self-publisher and partner of Weiyou Capital, who summarized various insiders and contempt chains in the industry and explained blockchain as an idea. The following is the oral collation of Chen Caigen:
I went from knowing nothing about blockchain
to being a firm believer
I first began to understand the value of blockchain investment because I came into contact with Mr. Xue Bazi, about June and July last year, and mentioned blockchain at a party we attended. He was very excited to discuss it with everyone and suggested we pay attention to it.
In fact, at first we did not understand, but from the sensitivity of investors, think this may be a good thing, so pay attention to .
In fact, at first we did not understand, but from the sensitivity of investors, think this may be a good thing, so pay attention to .
I found that the core value of the blockchain is mainly in the change of servers. This is very different from the Internet, the Internet technology is on the centralized servers, these servers are often controlled by large Internet companies, but the data storage method has security vulnerabilities and other aspects of the problem, this is risky for the user, while the blockchain is a distributed server will be much better .
Many people are still questioning blockchain, but I think it must be a good venture capital windfall. From the tide of entrepreneurship, the technical talents of mainstream Internet companies are now beginning to join the blockchain venture, which shows the recognition of blockchain technology by technical talents. There is also the layout of large investment institutions, such as Zenge, PreAngle , Sequoia, Hongtai, etc. are laying out the blockchain.
This means that blockchain has gradually transformed from a conceptual thing in the beginning to a landing and a windfall. It is no longer just a conjecture or a prediction, but has moved from the capital level to the usage level. All these developments and changes have made me firmly bullish on blockchain and become a firm believer.
In fact, blockchain is a
“distributed business idea”
I think blockchain is not just a technology , but also an idea . I even gave it a name, “distributed business thinking”, which is different from previous or current business models and can explain some of the current phenomena in the blockchain space.
In general, the characteristics of this “distributed business idea” are the following three points:
1, the right of individual confirmation. For example, we are now talking about the topic of buying a house, in fact, we buy a house to buy the right to use, the house will have a description of how many years of property rights, but we do not have the right to personal ownership.
The Internet industry also has this attribute, for example, we use in microblogging will have ID, then this ID in the end belongs to who? Is it a platform or an individual? There is no definite answer to this part until now. But blockchain is different: our personal data, ID, etc. all belong to the individual himself, others need to seek your consent if they call, or even pay you a fee.
again from one of my personal favorite blockchain projects – “originally”, to use it as an example. Many articles I have written in the past have been reprinted without consent, as well as without attribution, and even taken for commercial use, and the Internet is not a solution to these infringements. But this project is all about the ability to record content-related data assets with the support of blockchain technology.
Specifically, each article is like having an ID card with a technical data record, which can prove who the article is from and when it was posted and is copyrighted. If someone reprinted is able to be accessed, the article must be marked who the original creator is, or the need to pay the author, but also the protection of the author’s intellectual property rights.
2, the securitization of the act. It is important to mention here a phenomenon of life: some of our good behavior in life may turn into “liabilities”. For example, why are many people afraid to help the elderly cross the street? It is because there is no documented and actual proof, we do not have enough trust, it is easy to be porcelain, or even blackmailed.
and in the Internet, we often get some data on the incentive. For example, the drop taxi, you need to give the master star rating, these positive comments are data on the reward. But these in the Internet would be just data, not turned into assets.
But in the blockchain world, people’s behavior can become assets and can be recorded. For example, if I help someone forward the article content, the platform will comply with the smart contract and automatically return a coin to me, and I will be promptly rewarded for good deeds, while the coin itself can also be bought and sold on the exchange, with room for appreciation. In essence, it is a kind of futures.
3, the circulation of smart contracting. For example, when companies talk about cooperation projects with each other, they will constantly change around for the contract, and each other for their respective rights and obligations for the constant game, which may be complicated and inefficient. But in the world of blockchain, the contract is agreed in the code itself, and it is an automatic contract that can take effect automatically.
In terms of the stage of development, the whole blockchain space is still in its early stages of development and there is a huge bubble. This is mainly a problem of the participants in it. For example, many participants are mostly non-qualified investors, who do not know what white papers or blockchain is, but just play with various concepts to enrich themselves from it, which is the biggest bubble at present.
There is a “chain of contempt” between the chain and the cryptocurrency circle
The two will converge and neutralize
A lot of people will put blockchain and bitThe perception of virtual currencies such as coins is closely associated and even equivalent. In fact, there is a big difference between the chain circle and the coin circle, and the two populations are not the same, and the two have even had a state of mutual contempt.
First of all, the chain circle, the majority of this group is engineers, technical staff, more sentimental, engaged in blockchain because of the recognition of the technology itself to the industry change. While the cryptocurrency circle is generally for speculation or making money, they like to speculate and hope the price will double. The former is more puritanical, the latter is more utilitarian.
But the future development of the two may neutralize and converge some. Because the whole field is currently very profitable, people in the chain circle will also consider the problem of making money, and in the face of soaring wealth, the desire of the technical staff will be stimulated, or even compelled. And people in the cryptocurrency circle may start to want to do something real after making money, to do some landed applications with sustainability.
All in all, the convergence of both will accelerate the landing application of blockchain and shorten the development cycle of blockchain technology.
Blockchain field can focus on three major directions
Retail investors also have the opportunity to make money
For the blockchain field of investment and entrepreneurial thinking, it is recommended that you have several major directions to focus on:
First of all, the project itself is related to the data asset class. Because the payment itself is a digital asset, that’s why bitcoin is so hot, and the possibility of success will be higher.
the second direction is related to contracts. For example, financial services related to agreements and bills have the opportunity to be revolutionized by blockchain.
In addition, there are segmentation directions such as content, copyright and personal information data management, all of which can be innovated using blockchain technology and have more entrepreneurial opportunities.
From the overall market, according to conservative estimates, the number of participants worldwide is 30-40 million, while the Chinese market has 10-20 million participants, in fact, the market is still in the stage of supply and demand, there is a large seller’s market.
Overall, speculation is still very big, after all, there are still a lot of “leeks” waiting to be harvested , speculators are very good at seizing this point in time, is indeed able to earn a lot of money.
Here we should also mention that one of the advantages of blockchain is that it allows more retail investors to participate in the dividends of blockchain projects, which is also an investment and financial product.
But here is also a word of advice to retail investors: never add leverage or raise debt to invest in this thing. The company’s main goal is to provide the best possible service to its customers.
Two major factors have led to the decline of blockchain
It will take 3 to 5 years to realize the landing
In a word, blockchain technology is a disruptive technology. From the development of the technology to the application of the landing, such a development cycle may still need 3 to 5 years, or even shorter.
Next, I think the blockchain will go to a period of decline, mainly due to two factors: first, the regulation of national policies. Because there are really some bad phenomena, for example, there are some illegal investors or entrepreneurs who are applying this part of the blockchain to enrich themselves and even have deceptive means, so the state will be strictly controlled and the regulation will bring a part of the decline.
The second part is the impact of many air coins or junk projects, conceptual projects, which may be in the coming year because the project can not be applied on the ground, and there is no way to produce the value that is due to the twists and turns or even death, which will also lead to a decline.
But in the long run, the price of digital coins under the blockchain technology should not be like the current ups and downs, the next step will be back to its actual value line, so that the application and the actual price gradually move towards a matching track, to achieve a win-win situation for the country, the industry, the project, investors and users, we are looking forward to such a blockchain ecology.